EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

The conflict Early Warning System, EWS, is an expert system that utilizes cutting-edge technology to provide a map based information and knowledge warehouse or depository. It harnesses all types of available inputs from UN bodies, international organizations, the media, civil society, member states, private sector, etc. - be they online or offline - and provides both specific level summary (such as conflict, governance,) and detailed figures on specific indicators as required.

EWS was first conceived to enhance the capability of the Conflict Management Center (CMC) of the African Union (AU) to proactively handle the process of conflict prediction / prevention, management and resolution. EWS incorporates flexible facilities to apply various types of conflict analysis methods and prognosis such as statistical multivariate analysis, event data presentation, heuristic analysis and many more advanced and unique solutions proposed by different qualified experts, practitioners, and researchers to provide early warning on many areas such as Governance.

Cybersoft's EWS has features that enable the AU, NEPAD, UN, and regional organizations such as IGAD to provide member states with comparative, analytic benchmark feed back about their performance with respect to conflicts, governance, etc. on the basis of both qualitative and quantitative information of a large number of indicators. These indicators are largely based on agreed-upon values, norms, and standards. EWS has an optional feature that empowers leaders of member states to evaluate their policies and performance with respect to conflicts, governance, etc. A hybrid system by design, EWS uses statistical, symbolic, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural networks and generic algorithms in such a way as can be effectively adapted to many problem situations such as draught, poverty and epidemics.

The Objectives of EWS are providing the Conflict Management Center (CMC) specialist professionals with cutting-edge technology to:

• Deliver high-quality analysis with respect to the deterrence or prevention of inter- and intra-state conflicts.
  
  
• Build the capacity to transfer the intellectual knowledge of the EWS system and process to the specialist staff so that they can be able to do the job independently
  
  
• Provide specialists with the "What If" support tools for alternative policy analysis and modeling
  
  
• Build an information depository and a knowledge superstore.

To develop an Early Warning System that meets the highest standards, Cybersoft took an in-depth view at the parameters :

1. CONFLICT PREVENTION : Anticipating conflicts before their actual occurrence,
2. FORESIGHT/PREDICTION : Providing clearly discernible warning signals about impending conflicts, and
3. ESSENTIAL OR NECESSARY AND CRITICAL PARAMETERS : Simulating the occurrence of and approach to conflict resolution on the basis of early warning parameters and/or identifiable indicators.

In line with the relevant parameters, a number of activities are involved in developing an Early Warning System for the AU :

• Establishing an early warning Data Bank along with a knowledge base (expert) system within the AU to enhance the predictive capacity for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution.
• Designing and implementing connectivity and networking to enable appropriate information transmission.
• Linking the AU / EWS with available data banks that monitor conflict situations around the world (There are at least about eight.)
• Assessing the Early Warning Unit's organizational and manpower requirements, end user and technical training requirements, system deployment, system maintenance, system evolution, etc.
• Specifying the capital budget required for acquiring the necessary computer hardware, software, communication infrastructure as well as related accessories and facilities.

APPROACH and PROCESS

The various major tasks involved in predicting, preventing, managing, and resolving conflict are viewed by Cybersoft as progressing in the pattern depicted in the model shown in the flow chart below.

Early Warning System plays major role in conflict management.

Through its clear understanding of the requirements, Cybersoft has utilized its requisite capabilities, interest, and commitment to provide an EWS solution that dramatically adds value to the AU-CMC objectives of preventing and/or managing and/or resolving conflicts and thereby provides vital services to member states. If implemented, the EWS information and decision support system will work in a centralized manner within the AU - CMC. It will provide defined outputs to be delivered to the Political Department, the Secretary General and the African member states.

As with the other quality software it produces, Cybersoft employs proven software engineering principles, methodologies, tools, and techniques in developing EWS such as:

• Joint Application Development approach that lets users of the system to actively participate in requirements definition throughout the development process;
• State of the art software engineering methodologies such as the Object-Oriented Methodology and, in a wider context, the Component Object Model using the Unified Modeling Language Standard and the Unified Process Model;
• Knowledge Engineering/management models, methods, and basic technologies for representing and processing knowledge and for building intelligent knowledge-based systems;
• Intranet Engineering approach that combines the communication and computation solutions.

This intelligent System was presented at the two-day FEWER (Forum for Early Warning and Emergency Response) conference in London on January 11, 2001 where it was highly acclaimed. Cregg Zachary, a senior Wall Street Journalist, said "It is a unique engineers' approach that is most promising". He went on to write an article about it. After having gone over the Cybersoft EWS proposal for the OAU, Irina Fion, a UNDP Early Warning Specialist for five Eastern European Countries, said "The good thing about this conference is that I met with you". David Nyheim, Director of FEWER in London described it as "A totally innovative solution".

The EWS provides a Win-Win solution where stakeholders have the information and hence the possibility to predict, avert, manage and resolve conflicts and to improve Governance.